The Outcome Market / Numbers
Every figure in one place
Every figure on this site
This page collects the desk’s figures so they can be checked in one place rather than hunted across ten pages. Every one derives from the ten invented samples, each is illustrative, and each is shown with the arithmetic that produces it.
Desk spec
- samples
- 10 invented
- pages
- 18
- price
- 62c
- payout on yes
- 1.00
the contractA question turned into a tradable share. It pays a fixed amount on yes and nothing on no, and its price sits from 0c to 100c. On the samples it pays 1.00 and trades at 62c.
the priceThe market's implied chance of the event, so 62c is a 62.0% chance. The bid and the ask bracket it, and the 2c between them is the first cost a trader pays.
the settlementThe named source publishes the answer, and the payout follows. Of 200 sample contracts, 176 settled from the source and 4 were voided and refunded.
Direct answer
Everything the desk states is one of ten invented samples. The contract trades at 62c for a 1.00 payout; the quote is 60/62 with a 2c spread; 74 of 100 fills are maker fills; 176 of 200 contracts settle from the named source; 4 are voided; and a 500-contract book bought at 62c ends 8.00 down after the fee.
The ten samples
Each sample is defined once and reused; nothing on the site is a figure that does not trace back to one of them.
| Sample | What it holds | Defined on |
|---|---|---|
| A | one contract: price 62c, payout 1.00, gain 0.38, loss 0.62 | /the-contract |
| B | the quote: bid 60, ask 62, mid 61, spread 2c | /the-price |
| C | 100 fills: 74 maker, 26 taker, taker fee 0.02 | /the-order-book |
| D | 200 resolutions: 176 source, 14 clarification, 6 early, 4 void | /the-settlement |
| E | the cost: 4c round trip on a 61c mid, 6.6% | /the-fees |
| F | 100 contracts at 62c: 62.00 at risk, 38.00 to gain | /the-risk |
| G | the comparison: market 62.0%, book 58.0%, gap 4.0 points | /why-not-a-book |
| H | 500 contracts: 312 yes, 188 no | /index |
| I | 120 exits: 71 at the touch, 33 partial, 16 no bid | /the-liquidity |
| J | the settled book: 310.00 paid, 312.00 received, -8.00 net | /the-arithmetic |
| ten | every figure on the site | 18 pages |
samples A and F - the one contract in money
price = 0.62
payout on yes = 1.00
gain on yes = 0.38 -> 61.3% of the price
loss on no = 0.62 -> 100% of the price
on 100 contracts:
at risk = 62.00
most to gain = 38.00
ratio = 1.63
samples B, C and E - the cost of the round trip
bid / ask = 60 / 62
spread = 2c -> 3.3% of the 61c mid
taker fee = 2c
all-in round trip = 4c -> 6.6% of mid
break-even move = 4c in the reader's favour
sample D - the settlement split
contracts = 200
from the named source = 176 -> 88.0%
after a clarification = 14 -> 7.0%
resolved early = 6 -> 3.0%
voided and refunded = 4 -> 2.0%
not plain = 24 -> 12.0%
sample I - the exit, 120 attempts
filled at the touch = 71 -> 59.2%
partial = 33 -> 27.5%
no bid = 16 -> 13.3%
median time to fill = 4 minutes
sample J - the book settled
500 contracts at 62c = 310.00 paid
312 resolve yes = 312.00 received
gross = +2.00
taker fee 500 x 0.02 = 10.00
net = -8.00
Every figure as a tally
62cthe sample contract price
61.3%the gain on yes as a share of the price
2cthe bid-ask spread
3.3%the spread as a share of the mid
6.6%the all-in round trip
74maker fills, of 100
88.0%resolved straight from the source
2.0%voided and refunded
59.2%exits filled at the touch
62.4%contracts that resolved yes
-8.00the settled book, after the fee
None of these figures is observed from a real venue, event or account. They are ten invented samples, defined across this site, and every number above is derived from one of them. No real price, fee, spread or resolution rule is reproduced, and none of the figures is a forecast of any market.