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Affiliate disclosure. The partner link in the masthead and in the band beside the copy on this page is a sponsored link to a partner operator, and this site may be paid if you open an account through it, at no extra cost to you. It carries rel="sponsored noopener" and opens in a new tab. A desk about a tradable contract should not leave its own funding unsaid: one link funds the site, and no venue, contract, event or product is named, rated or recommended anywhere on it.
The Outcome Market / About
What this desk is, and what it refuses to do

About this project

This is one desk in a series, and it covers one topic: the event contract as a product. It sets out what it is, how it is built, how it is funded and what it deliberately does not do, so a reader can judge the explanation rather than take it on trust.

Desk spec
topic
1
samples
10 invented
pages
18
rankings
0
the contractA question turned into a tradable share. It pays a fixed amount on yes and nothing on no, and its price sits from 0c to 100c. On the samples it pays 1.00 and trades at 62c.
the priceThe market's implied chance of the event, so 62c is a 62.0% chance. The bid and the ask bracket it, and the 2c between them is the first cost a trader pays.
the settlementThe named source publishes the answer, and the payout follows. Of 200 sample contracts, 176 settled from the source and 4 were voided and refunded.
Direct answer

This desk covers one topic, the event contract, in eighteen pages. Every figure comes from ten invented samples defined on the overview and reused across the site; the desk names no venue, ranks nothing, recommends nothing and forecasts nothing, and it is funded by one disclosed sponsored partner link.

How the desk is built

The method is the same on every page, and it is stated so a reader can check it rather than trust it.

  1. Define the samples once, on the overview - ten sets of prices, counts and windows - and refuse any figure that does not trace back to one.
  2. Show the arithmetic behind every number, so a reader can re-run it with their own price and cost.
  3. Name the mechanism rather than the product: the contract, the price, the book, the source and the cost, not any venue's version of them.
  4. Separate what the product does from what a reader should do, and keep the desk to the first.
  5. State the commercial position and the risk warning on every page, above the fold, rather than in a footer.
what the desk will and will not state it will state: a mechanism, a price, a payout, a cost, a count and the arithmetic e.g. 62c -> 1.00 on yes -> 0.38 gain -> 6.6% round trip it will not state: a forecast of any event a ranking of any venue a recommendation to trade anything a view on which side of any contract is right the difference is the whole point of the desk.

The three terms this desk uses

the contract
A question turned into a tradable share that pays a fixed amount on yes and nothing on no; the sample pays 1.00 and trades at 62c.
the price
The market's implied chance of the event; 62c is 62.0%, and the 2c spread between the bid and the ask is the first cost paid.
the settlement
The moment the named source publishes the answer and the payout follows; of 200 sample contracts, 176 settled from the source and 4 were voided and refunded.

The ten samples, in one place

Sample A - the contract. Price 62c, payout 1.00 on yes, gain 0.38, loss 0.62, five fixed fields.
Sample B - the quote. Bid 60, ask 62, mid 61, spread 2c, 3.3% of mid.
Sample C - the fills. 100 fills, 74 maker at 0.00 and 26 taker at 0.02 a contract.
Sample D - the resolutions. 200 contracts: 176 from the source, 14 clarified, 6 early, 4 voided.
Sample E - the cost. A 4c round trip on a 61c mid, 6.6%, and the price move it takes to break even.
Sample F - what is at risk. 100 contracts at 62c: 62.00 at risk, 38.00 to gain, a 1.63 ratio.
Sample G - the comparison. Market 62.0% against a book's implied 58.0%, a 4.0-point gap and a 6.2% overround.
Sample H - yes and no. 500 contracts: 312 resolved yes (62.4%) and 188 no (37.6%).

Sample I, the 120 exits, is defined on the liquidity page and sample J, the settled book, on the arithmetic page.

how the samples stay honest every figure on the site <- one of the ten samples no figure on the site <- a real venue or event the samples are invented on purpose, so the desk cannot leak a claim about any company, any product or any live market, and a reader cannot mistake an illustration for a forecast.
This desk is explanatory content for adults and is not financial, legal or betting advice. It names no venue and reproduces no live contract, price or rule. If any part of the desk reads as encouragement to trade, that is a failure of the writing, not its intent.
How to read this desk
  • Start at the overview for the ten samples, then follow the page that answers your question.
  • Treat every figure as illustrative and check it against the arithmetic shown.
  • Read a real contract's own rules, not this desk's description of contracts in general.
  • Check the law where you are before using any venue.
  • Remember that the desk is funded by one disclosed link, and nothing here is a recommendation.

Read next

The contractStart with what a contract isThe numbersEvery figure in one placeQuestionsTwelve answersLegalThe full risk warning