paidAffiliate disclosure. The partner link in the masthead and in the band beside the copy on this page is a sponsored link to a partner operator, and this site may be paid if you open an account through it, at no extra cost to you. It carries rel="sponsored noopener" and opens in a new tab. A desk about a tradable contract should not leave its own funding unsaid: one link funds the site, and no venue, contract, event or product is named, rated or recommended anywhere on it.
The Outcome Market / Legal
The commercial position and the risk, stated plainly
Legal, funding and risk warning
A page about a tradable instrument should say who paid for it and what it is not. This one states the funding, the risk and the limits of the content, in the same plain terms the rest of the desk uses.
Desk spec
- funding
- 1 disclosed link
- advice
- none
- forecasts
- none
- audience
- 18+
the contractA question turned into a tradable share. It pays a fixed amount on yes and nothing on no, and its price sits from 0c to 100c. On the samples it pays 1.00 and trades at 62c.
the priceThe market's implied chance of the event, so 62c is a 62.0% chance. The bid and the ask bracket it, and the 2c between them is the first cost a trader pays.
the settlementThe named source publishes the answer, and the payout follows. Of 200 sample contracts, 176 settled from the source and 4 were voided and refunded.
Direct answerThis desk is funded by one disclosed sponsored partner link and carries no other commercial relationship. It gives no financial, legal or betting advice and no forecast of any event, and it is for adults only. The loss on an event contract can be the whole amount paid for it, which is 0.62 a contract on the samples.
Funding
The commercial position is stated on every page and repeated here. One link in the masthead and in the band beside the copy is a sponsored link to a partner operator, and the site may be paid if a reader opens an account through it, at no extra cost to the reader. Nothing else on the desk is monetised.
what the funding does and does not change
the funding source = one sponsored partner link
the desk names no venue = 0 named
the desk ranks no venue = 0 rankings
the desk recommends nothing = 0 recommendations
the desk forecasts nothing = 0 forecasts
so the link funds the writing and does not shape the figures,
every one of which derives from the ten invented samples.
The risk, in the samples' own numbers
- Money paid for a contract can be lost in full: 0.62 of a 0.62 contract on the sample.
- The gain is bounded too: 0.38 on the same contract, and no more.
- Trading costs are paid whatever the outcome: a 4c round trip, 6.6% of the 61c mid.
- A position held to settlement cannot be reversed, and one that cannot find a bid cannot be closed early at all.
the worst case, stated as arithmetic
100 contracts at 62c = 62.00 paid
if all resolve no = 0.00 received -> -62.00
plus the cost to acquire them = up to 4c a contract
if the position cannot be sold = the loss cannot be avoided
the bounded loss is still the whole of the money committed:
62.00 on the sample, not a fraction of it.
This desk is general information about how a product class works. It is not advice about any product, venue or transaction, and it is not a substitute for the rules of the venue or the law where the reader is. Nothing here is a forecast, and no figure on the site is observed from a real market.
The four things to take from this page
- The desk is funded by one disclosed sponsored link and nothing else.
- It gives no advice and no forecast, on any event.
- The loss on a position can be the whole price paid for it.
- Nothing here replaces a venue's own rules or the law where you are.
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